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Simulation Modeling Using @RISK: Updated for Version 4, by Wayne L. Winston
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With its understandable explanations of Monte Carlo and step-by-step instructions for Microsoft Excel, Lotus, and @Risk software, this text/software package offers both the instruction and the practice students need to begin solving complex business problems. It is designed for use as the primary learning tool in a short business simulation course (for advanced undergraduate and MBA students), or as a supplement to courses in investments, corporate finance, management science, marketing strategy, operations management, and actuarial science.
- Sales Rank: #587447 in Books
- Published on: 2000-11-03
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.28" h x .52" w x 7.44" l, .94 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 226 pages
Review
PREFACE 1. WHAT IS SIMULATION? Actual Applications of Simulation / What's Ahead? / Simulation Models Versus Analytic Models 2. RANDOM NUMBERS -- THE BUILDING BLOCKS OF SIMULATION PROBLEMS 3. USING SPREADSHEETS TO PERFORM SIMULATIONS Example 3.1: The Newsvendor Problem / Finding a Confidence Interval for Expected Profit / How Many Trials Do We Need? / Determination of the Optimal Order Quantity / Using Excel Data Tables to Repeat a Simulation / Performing the Newsvendor Simulation with the Excel Random Number Generator / Problems 4. AN INTRODUCTION TO @RISK Simulating the Newsvendor Example with @RISK / Explanation of Statistical Results / Conclusions 5. GENERATING NORMAL RANDOM VARIABLES Simulating Normal Demand with @RISK / Using the Graph Type Icons / Placing Target Values in the Statistics Output / Estimating the Mean and Standard Deviation of a Normal Distribution / Problems 6. APPLICATIONS OF SIMULATION TO CORPORATE FINANCIAL PLANNING Using the Triangular Distribution to Model Sales / Sensitivity Analysis with Tornado Graphs / Sensitivity Analysis with Scenarios / Alternative Modeling Strategies / Problems 7. SIMULATING A CASH BUDGET Example 7.1: Cash Budgeting / Problems 8. A SIMULATION APPROACH TO CAPACITY PLANNING Example 8.1: Wozac Capacity Example / Problems 9. SIMULATION AND BIDDING Uniform Random Variables / A Bidding Example / Problems 10. DEMING'S FUNNEL EXPERIMENT Simulating Rule 1 (Don't Touch That Funnel!) / Simulating Rule 2 / Comparison of Rules 1-4 / Lesson of the Funnel Experiment / Mathematical Explanation of the Funnel Experiment / Problems 11. THE TAGUCHI LOSS FUNCTIONS Using @RISK to Quantify Quality Loss / Problems 12. THE USE OF SIMULATION ON PROJECT MANAGEMENT The Widgetco Example / Estimating Probability Distribution of Projected Completion Time / Determining the Probability That an Activity is Critical / The Beta Distribution and Project Management / Problems 13. SIMULATING CRAPS (AND OTHER GAMES) Example 13.1: Simulating Craps / Confidence Interval for Winning at Craps / Problems 14. USING SIMULATION TO DETERMINE OPTIMAL MAINTENANCE POLICIES Example 14.1 / Problems 15. USING THE WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION TO MODEL MACHINE LIFE Example 15.1: Simulating Equipment Replacement Decisions / Problems 16. SIMULATING STOCK PRICES AND OPTIONS Modeling the Price of a Stock / Estimating the Mean and Standard Deviation of Stock Returns from Historical Data / What Is an Option? / Pricing a Call Option / Example 16.1a: Pricing a European Call Option with @RISK / Analyzing a Portfolio of Investments / Example 16.1b: Simulating Portfolio Return / Problems 17. PRICING PATH-DEPENDENT AND EXOTIC OPTIONS Example 17.1: Pricing a Path Dependent Option / Problems 18. USING IMMUNIZATION TO MANAGE INTEREST RATE RISK Duration / Convexity / Immunization Against Interest Rate Risk / Example 18.1: Immunization Using Solver / Better Models for Interest Rate Risk / Problems 19. HEDGING WITH FUTURES Hedging with Futures: The Basics / Modeling Futures Risk with @RISK / Problems 20. MODELING MARKET SHARE Example 20.1a: Market Share Simulation / Is Advertising Worthwhile? / Example 20.1b: Advertising Effectiveness / To Coupon or Not to Coupon? / Example 20.1c: Should Coke Give Out Coupons? / Problems 21. GENERATING CORRELATED VARIABLES: DESIGNING A NEW PRODUCT Example 21.1 / Problems 22. SIMULATING SAMPLING PLANS WITH THE HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION Example 22.1: Simulating a Sampling Plan / Problems 23. SIMULATING INVENTORY MODELS Example 23.1: Simulating a Periodic Review Inventory System / Problems 24. SIMULATING A SINGLE-SERVER QUEUING SYSTEM Example 24.1: Queuing Simulation in @RISK / Estimating the Operating Characteristics of a Queuing System / Problems
About the Author
Wayne L. Winston is Professor Emeritus of Decision Sciences at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and is now a Professor of Decision and Information Sciences at the Bauer College at the University of Houston. He has won more than 45 teaching awards, including the school-wide MBA award six times. His current interest is in showing how spreadsheet models can be used to solve business problems in all disciplines, particularly in finance, sports, and marketing. In addition to publishing more than 20 articles in leading journals, Dr. Winston has written such successful textbooks as OPERATIONS RESEARCH: APPLICATIONS AND ALGORITHMS, MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING: APPLICATIONS AND ALGORITHMS, SIMULATION MODELING WITH @RISK, DATA ANALYSIS FOR MANAGERS, SPREADSHEET MODELING AND APPLICATIONS, MATHLETICS, DATA ANALYSIS AND BUSINESS MODELING WITH EXCEL 2013, MARKETING ANALYTICS, and FINANCIAL MODELS USING SIMULATION AND OPTIMIZATION. He received his B.S. degree in mathematics from MIT and his Ph.D. in operations research from Yale.
Most helpful customer reviews
9 of 9 people found the following review helpful.
You don't need this book
By Genevieve Hayes
There are only two reasons that I can think of as to why a person might want to buy this book: either they want to learn about simulation modelling or they want to learn how to use @Risk. Regardless of which category you fall into, buying this book is not the best course of action.
Although, if you read this book, you would undoubtedly learn something about simulation modelling, there are better books to teach you about simulation. Winston presents very little of the theory behind simulation in this book and instead focuses on teaching through examples. I don't have a problem with the use of examples in text books, I think examples are essential, but unless the theory used in those examples is also presented, it can be difficult to apply that theory to other problems that may differ from the examples. For those of you looking for a good introductory text on simulation, try "Simulation" by Sheldon M. Ross instead.
On the other hand, if you are only interested in learning how to use the @Risk computer package, then you don't need this book. Admittedly, Winston does do a reasonable job of introducing readers to the basics of @Risk, but if you have this program on your computer, then you will already have access to the built in tutorial video and the 511 page manual, which are a lot more detailed. When I learnt @Risk, I found that the easiest way to learn this program was to work through the tutorial video, stopping after each action was demonstrated and repeating it myself. Taking that approach, I learnt this program in under 3 hours. Whenever I need additional help, I just look at the instruction manual. I have barely touched Winston's book since buying it.
Note that @Risk is NOT a free-ware program. It is an add-on program for Microsoft Excel that must be purchased separately. It is an excellent program, which I highly recommend, but it is also quite pricey. This book includes a CD that contains a 30 day trial version of @Risk version 4.0 (the latest version of @Risk, at the time of writing this, is version 5.0), but if you wish to use this program after the 30 day period expires, then you are going to have to pay a lot. This book does not give instruction on simulation using any other computer packages.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Excellent introduction to simulation with many examples.
By A Customer
A one of a kind book that introduces simulation with spreadsheets and shows models of different disciplines. Makes the use of spreadsheet simulation easy and applicable to many every-day business problems. Clear and easy to read, and to follow the examples in Excel or Lotus.
Keep an eye on Winston. If he continues publishing as he has with his last two books, he will clearly be one of those unique and very few academic leaders that transcend the large void between theoretical teaching and practical, real world, business applications. He will be in demand.
Well done
3 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
The book was well received; the software was poor.
By A Customer
While the written material was of the expected quality, I never could get the associated software to install. Since, to me, this was half the value of the purchase price, I am deeply disappointed. The customer support was as badly developed as the four year old Install program, which, incidently, does not come with Install Shield. Not very professional in my mind. If you buy this book, and intend to run the software, good luck to you! Even with the poor support of Palisade Software, I could not get it to load onto my Thinkpad under Win95- and I've been writing code since 1984.
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